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Bailout

 

Monday, the House voted down the bailout to the financial markets.  The reasons for this down vote are many, more than I will address here.  What must be addressed is that there is now a crisis that has not been faced in this country, indeed in this world, in generations.

I have long been of the opinion that the market will take care of itself.  However, there has been too much interference by politicos on both sides of the aisle to allow the market to correct itself on its own in a relatively short amount of time.  Apparently, the House will address the bailout later this week and vote again, and this time it should pass.  Why then and not Monday?

On Monday, the stock market tanked with a 777 point loss.  That translated to a net loss of $1 TRILLION dollars.  Now some may say that it serves the "big corporations" right for sticking it to the little guys, but what most people don't understand, or refuse to understand, is that they are all dependent on the financial well being of those big corporations.  Most of us have some sort of retirement account through our employers (yes I know there are exceptions), the every popular 401(k) accounts.  Well, how do those make money?  How do they grow so that when you and I retire, we will be able to draw from them?  Simple answer:  they are invested in the stock market.  So yesterday, $1 TRILLION was lost, some of that was my money, some of that was your money.

That is why the bailout will be approved later this week.  People should wake up and realize that this crisis has gone beyond the norm.  They also need to realize that the bailout does NOT fix the problem.  The market needs to be allowed to fix itself.  This bailout will be a stop gap that should give the market a chance to correct itself.  What everyone needs to understand is that the correction will not happen overnight.  It will still take time for the problems areas to clear themselves.  How long will that take?  Who knows?  Personally, I feel that the next several years will give us a slower economy. 

What will make this all work, is for everyone to stop looking in the short term, here I am using short term to mean less than two years.  This correction will take some time.  We have to allow this to proceed in its own time.  Overall, our economy is still strong; just look at the past.  If you plot the growth of our economy, it continues to rise over time.   Look closely at that plot and you will notice that the line is jagged, and for every "jag" up there is a "jag" down.  Every one of those down "jags" is an economic slowdown of some sort.  It has to happen; it is what makes the market grow.  An illustration of how this works can be seen in power lifting. In that sport the competitor lifts a weighted bar to shoulder height. At that point, the competitor readjusts hand and foot placement to carry the bar over their head. That is where we are now, the shoulder height. 

Let’s allow the market the time to correct. Let’s give it the tools it will need. And most importantly, let it happen without interference from people who don’t know what they are talking about.

How will this play out? Haven’t got a clue. What I do know is that the market will improve and the economy will continue to grow.

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Required reading

Currently, I am reading Voume IV of Sir Winston Churchill's magnificent series:  A History of the English Speaking Peoples.  This was the last volume picks up just after the War of Independence.  Reading about the early years of this Republic is very enlightening, made more so that it is told frm a perspective that is different from most American histories.  Maybe if more people would read the words of Sir Winston, this country will continue to be the inspiration it has been. 
Really the entire series should be required reading.  In the long and storied history of the country now known as the United Kingdom, one can see the infant steps that led to fifty-six men affixing their signatures to the Declaration of Independence.  The British dealt with absolutism, despotism, economies that rose and fell, there was tension between classes and a civil war.  The wise men who came together in Philadelphia two hundred thirty-two years ago were quite familiar with this history.  It was by learning from that history that the foundations of this country were laid. 
 
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Budget freefall

Let me start off by saying "I'm pissed!!!"  Why?  Click on the link below.

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-09-24-0149.html
 
Today's local news is reporting that the Commonwealth of Virginia is facing a $3 BILLION shortfall.  The esteemed, yeah right, governor is citing economic conditions as the culprit for this shortfall.  Maybe he should have thought of that before submitting the budget to the General Assembly for approval. The current biennial budget is only three months old and is facing this problem.  Yes, Kaine is blaming the economy for the shortfall, but it may not be such a large number if he hadn't proposed a budget based on a 6% growth rate for the biennial period.  True, Virginia has shown remarkable growth in the past, but as with all things, there comes a time of correction.  The housing market was showing crack when this budget was proposed and passed.  (And yes, the members of the General Assembly also share the blame for the mess.)  When the, then, coming slow down was first glimpsed, the budget should have been reworked to accoutn for the possibility of a revenue down turn.  The problem is that there were too many pet projects that became "sacred" and weren't cut, and these bloated the budget, while important issues, such as roads and infrastructure, took it on the chin.
 
Now, Kaine is calling for all state agencies to submit revisions to their operating budgets with 5%, 10% and 15% cuts in order to correct the shortfall.  If the 10% or 15% cuts are implemented, that means layoffs.  So Kaine is going to "fix" the shortfall by putting people out of work, thereby putting pressure on their abilities to pay for goods and services, which means the tax revenue from sales tax will decline as people cut their own spending, which leads to lower state revenues and on and on and on.  Yes, I know that is a simplistic example, but the point is that the budget as written was a sham and now individuals and families will have to pay the price for the imcompetence of the governor and his advisors. 
 
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